Monday 30 April 2012

Good morning all, and welcome to a new week.

MONDAY DATA (Trade reaction): 

  • JAP manu PMI 0000
  • GER Retail Sales moM up to 0.8%. YoY up to 2.3%
  • EU CPI 1000
  • CAD GDP 1330
  • US Personal Income 1330

NEWS:

  • Asian shares close down. But EU open looks positive with expectations of Central bank easing in AUS, UK and US. Gold up.

Initial Thought:  With renewed fears in EU I would expect the USD to rise as a safe haven. However Monday morning is often quite a slow start with only Asia open after the weekend so will not hold firm to this view. As Europe opens I will keep a close eye on what other market participants are thinking and take my cue from the price action they create.

Correlation: EURUSD & USDCHF

Leading Pair: GBPUSD

ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Short USD
Watch out for: EU CPI at 1000, CAD GDP at 1330, US income 1330
Plan:  Trade with the trend

Potential Trades: NA.

Personal Notes: Despite there being a fairly clear trend of shorting the USD overnight, the trend does seem to be slowing and looks to be weakening. I am unlikely to place a trade until the trend seems clearer/stronger. This morning I will keep a close eye on the H1/60M chart for further clues of intra-day direction before committing to a trade.  I will also visit some forex forums, to try and get some further insight in to what other trader are doing, but ultimately I will trade my own plan.

PLEASE ADD COMMENT, ALL VIEWS WELCOME, HERE TO SUPPORT NOT JUDGE! Kind Regards RTC 


Sunday 29 April 2012

Good afternoon all.

Weekly Trade Summary: +62 pips

Trade Number: AL120
Time Frame: M15 Trade Start Date:  250412AM Trade End Date: 250412AM
Trade Type: long Pair: EURJPY Price In: 107.56 Price Out: 107.35 Pips: -14

FA Reason: Intraday bias long

Trade Details: Pullback trade
Buy = on close above downward trend-line (fault)
Stop loss = Prior low
Profit target =  Measured Move

Exit: Stopped out

Trade Image: Entry Poor Exit OK












Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Preparation failure: Price had failed to make a new high I therefore should have waited for a break out above range highs instead of trading the pullback because there was too much overhead supply.
Solution: If you had used your guide and checklist you would have avoided this trade because the checklist critrea was not meet.


Trade Number: AL121
Time Frame: H1 Trade Start Date:  270412AM Trade End Date: 270412AM
Trade Type: Long Pair: EURUSD Price In: 1.31672 Price Out: 1.32005 Pips: 58.

FA Reason: NA

Trade Details: Bullish Engulfing Pattern at S1
Buy on close of Bull EP
ISL = below real body lows
IPT = Central pivot point

Exit: Central Pivot point

Trade Image: Entry Good Exit Good














Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Lesson learnt, when you have an inspired thought have a go even, you don’t have to max the risk.
2.  Fault let profits run,  don't sell until theres a good reason too.


Trade Number: AL122
Time Frame: M15 Trade Start Date:  270412PM Trade End Date: 270412PM
Trade Type: Short Pair: USDCHF Price In: 0.90653 Price Out: 0.90473 Pips: 18 pips

FA Reason: Short USD on Poor US GDP results

Trade Details: Range and S1 Break down
Price tests and ranges onS1
Short Price closes below range lows and S1
ISL = above S1
IPT = 2:1

Exit: MS2

Trade Image: Entry Good Exit Fine












Lessons learnt/ Summary:
Intraday charts aren't always going to look as good as hourly and daily charts. You've got to be prepared to enter when you have a good idea, and have conviction in it becuase it is unlikely that you will be able to find much solace in chart action. Find solace in your good idea instead.


Summary: 
1. Preparation failure: Soultion = Keep Guide by side and use Checklist for entry.
2. When you have an inspired thought have a go, you don’t have to max the risk.
3. Fault: didn't let profits run.
4. Keep you expectations inline with market action.
5. The decision making process is the most stressful part of trading (for me anyway). I know I'm banging on about it but, use a checklist for trade entry and trade management. This will make your succesful trading repeatable and make it easier to identify exactly where a problem lies.  It will also persevere your self esteem. If you trade with a check-list and the trade fails, it is the check-list at fault, not you! You did everything you were meant to and can therefore be proud of your efforts. But of course you need to examine the check-list to find how it created a loss.

Daily Goal: Use your guide and Check-list to take emotion out of  trade entry and management. Trade your inspired thoughts, if worried simply lower the risk. Try to make a profit everyday.

Friday 27 April 2012


Good morning everyone, another big day ahead with overnight news and data due out.

FRIDAY DATA:
  • UK CCI flat at -31
  • JAP CPI YoY up to slightly to 0.5%
  • JAP ind Prod YoY up to 13.9% WTE, MoM up to 1% WTE
  • JAP retial sales YoY up to 10.3% BTE
  • JAP jobs flat at 4.5%
  • JAP IR flat at 0.1%, expands stimulus in the form of govt bond purchases.
  • GER CCI down to 5.6 WTE
  • SW KOF leading up to 0.4 BTE
  • UK House Prices???
  • US GDP 1330
  • US CSI 1500
NEWS:
  • SPA rating cut on deficit
  • AMZN up on earnings
  • JAP BOJ adds stimulus while CPI, Retail Sales improve BTE and Ind Prod improves but misses views. However on the whole Japan is improving but EU debt fears are holding its stocks down.
  • Asian shares drop on EU debt concern.
  • Copper rises on hopes of Fed QE3.
Initial Thought:  With Spain downgrade, would expect USD to rise. JPY likely to fall with renewed stimulus from BOJ. Action could be stunted ahead of US GDP figures.

Correlation:
EURUSD & USDCHF

ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Charts indecisive, will keep an eye on H1 charts for clues.
Watch out for: US GDP at 1330, expected to fall, a BTE result will drive USD up, a WTE result will likely stump the market, with options rapidly decreasing.
Plan:  Look for trades with the prevailing trend. Lighten up before US GDP figures.

Personal Notes: 
In all honesty the direction of the day is not shouting out to me so I'm probably going to stay on the H1/60M chart until I see some clearer action (nice big bar) then drill down from there.
On a longer term perspective I will be looking at 2 stocks I've had on my watch list for some time, CRUS and SWI which both broke out of flat bases on huge volume yesterday.
Good luck, and have fun.

PLEASE ADD COMMENT, ALL VIEWS WELCOME, HERE TO SUPPORT NOT JUDGE! Kind Regards RTC 

Thursday 26 April 2012

CRUS: $27.39 4.30 (18.62%) 619% - Cirrus Logic Inc - Investors.com

CRUS: $27.39 4.30 (18.62%) 619% - Cirrus Logic Inc - Investors.com

SWI: $45.38 7.56 (19.99%) 309% - Solarwinds Inc - Investors.com

SWI: $45.38 7.56 (19.99%) 309% - Solarwinds Inc - Investors.com
Hi Guys...

THURSDAY DATA: 
  • EU Draghi Speech 0830
  • EU consumer, Economic and Industrial Confidence 0900
  • GER CPI ???
  • UK mortgage app 0930
  • EU confidence 1000
  • US Thurs JOBS 1330
NEWS:
  • UK consumer confidence at  53, but economy now technically in recession. 
  • US and Asia closes up on Bernanke words of support and positive earnings.
  • Deutsche bank profits drop on debt crisis.
  • RBNZ keeps rates at 2.5%
Initial Thought:  Lots of EU data out this AM avoid EURUSD trades.

Correlation:
EURUSD: and  USDCHF

ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Short USD
Watch out for: EU data 0830-0900, and US Jobs 1330
Plan:  Avoid EUR trades until after 0900, lighten up before US jobs 1330.

Potential Trades:
As of 0800GMT the market is short the USD across the board. The EURUSD and USDCHF are in a rather choppy range on their hourly charts. This will limit their intraday moves for the moment, wait for a BO of range and enter with the prevailing trend. But GBPUSD and XAUUSD are trending better so it’s just a case of being patient and waiting for that pullback (PB) or breakout (BO) then going with the trend.

Personal Notes:
I identified 2 trades yesterday which I didn’t trade as I got overly worried about long tails/wicks/shadows going against my trade direction on prior candles. Although these trades wouldn’t have made me a fortune I could have easily made 10-20 pips on each of them. I was thinking too much. If I had stuck to my guide I it would have taken this problematic decision making out of the equation and turned it into a mechanical act of ticking off a check list and entering once all the checklist criteria were satisfied. This would have taken all the responsibility out of my hands and therefore all the negative feelings about myself. Had the trade failed it would have been the checklist that failed, rather than myself. Even if the checklist had failed I could still feel positively about my efforts as I would have executed the trade exactly as I was meant to. I’ve got to use my guide and stop rushing entries!

PLEASE ADD COMMENT, ALL VIEWS WELCOME, HERE TO SUPPORT NOT JUDGE! Kind Regards RTC

Wednesday 25 April 2012

Good morning all.  So big day ahead of us...

WEDNESDAY DATA:
  • AUS closed Anzac day
  • UK GDP 0930
  • US durable goods 1330
  • US FED IR 1730
  • US fed conference 1915
NEWS:
  • Asia closes up near 1 % on earnings on improved US housing and EU debt.
  • AAPL stocks jump on China demand
  • EU banks still need ECB support while PIIGS struggle w debt.
  • Eye on French election, if Francois Hollande’s wins. France is likely to change it’s position on austerity and more debt fears will likely sweep the market. 
  • Eye on Fed.
Initial Thought:  With UK GDP in AM, US durable Lunch time and Fed in PM, might be a choppy day.

Correlation: EURUSD good with EJ UC XU

ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Short USD (as of 0800 GMT)
Watch out for: EU Draghi speech 0800, UK GDP (QoQ to show whether UK in recession) 0930, US Durable Goods 1330 GMT, US Fed IR 1915 GMT.
Plan :  Avoid GBP until after 0930, lighten up before US open wait for Durables and Wall street open, get flat ahead on Fed 1600.

Potential trades: 1. EURUSD long breakout trade after Bollinger band squeeze (BBSQ). Buy on close above dotted yellow line for 10-20 pips. 2. USDCHF short  breakdown trade after Bollinger band squeeze (BBSQ).. Sell on close below dotted line.












PLEASE ADD COMMENT, ALL VIEWS WELCOME, WE'RE HERE TO SUPPORT NOT JUDGE! Kind Regards RTC



Tuesday 24 April 2012

Struggled with the Intraday direction today .Charts looked listless and seemed to want to flirt with their H1 55EMA rather than do anything productive. Anyone taking pips well done. Going to get flat ahead of US Fed Interest rates tomorrow.

PLEASE ADD COMMENT, ALL VIEWS WELCOME, WE'RE HERE TO SUPPORT NOT JUDGE! Kind Regards RTC