Friday 27 April 2012


Good morning everyone, another big day ahead with overnight news and data due out.

FRIDAY DATA:
  • UK CCI flat at -31
  • JAP CPI YoY up to slightly to 0.5%
  • JAP ind Prod YoY up to 13.9% WTE, MoM up to 1% WTE
  • JAP retial sales YoY up to 10.3% BTE
  • JAP jobs flat at 4.5%
  • JAP IR flat at 0.1%, expands stimulus in the form of govt bond purchases.
  • GER CCI down to 5.6 WTE
  • SW KOF leading up to 0.4 BTE
  • UK House Prices???
  • US GDP 1330
  • US CSI 1500
NEWS:
  • SPA rating cut on deficit
  • AMZN up on earnings
  • JAP BOJ adds stimulus while CPI, Retail Sales improve BTE and Ind Prod improves but misses views. However on the whole Japan is improving but EU debt fears are holding its stocks down.
  • Asian shares drop on EU debt concern.
  • Copper rises on hopes of Fed QE3.
Initial Thought:  With Spain downgrade, would expect USD to rise. JPY likely to fall with renewed stimulus from BOJ. Action could be stunted ahead of US GDP figures.

Correlation:
EURUSD & USDCHF

ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Charts indecisive, will keep an eye on H1 charts for clues.
Watch out for: US GDP at 1330, expected to fall, a BTE result will drive USD up, a WTE result will likely stump the market, with options rapidly decreasing.
Plan:  Look for trades with the prevailing trend. Lighten up before US GDP figures.

Personal Notes: 
In all honesty the direction of the day is not shouting out to me so I'm probably going to stay on the H1/60M chart until I see some clearer action (nice big bar) then drill down from there.
On a longer term perspective I will be looking at 2 stocks I've had on my watch list for some time, CRUS and SWI which both broke out of flat bases on huge volume yesterday.
Good luck, and have fun.

PLEASE ADD COMMENT, ALL VIEWS WELCOME, HERE TO SUPPORT NOT JUDGE! Kind Regards RTC 

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