Tuesday 4 September 2012

This blog is no longer updated as its mission was to create chat/conversation, however I never managed to inspire this in others, so there seemed little point in continuing. I still actively trade and am a hopless optimist so am not deleting it. I encourage anyone who visits to drop me a line. Very best wishes RTC

I keep 3 other blogs that you can find by visiting my profile.

Thursday 17 May 2012

Good morning...

THURSDAY DATA (Trade reaction):
  • SW and GER closed
  • 0050 JAP GDP up to 4.1% MBTE
  • Tentative SPA 10y bond ???
  • 0200 AUS inflation expectations fall slightly to 3.1%
  • 0530 JAP Ind Prod up to 1.3% MoM and 14.2% YoY BTE
  • 1330 US Thursday Jobs report BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
  • 1500 US Leading BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
  • 1500 US Philly Manu BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
NEWS:
  • ECB stop leading to some GRE banks prompting GRE exit from EU.
  • JAP Economy grows faster than expected on Quake reconstruction.
  • Asia closes up on Jap GDP
  • Fed signals more easing possible = stocks up
Initial Thought: although some good news the Draghi signalling the end of some loans to GRE will cause a lot of fear continue to buy the USD.

Correlation: EURUSD High with GBPUSD and XAUUSD high neg with USDCHF.

Leading Pair: NA

As of 0800 GMT EURUSD…
ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Long USD
EURUSD chart action: In down trend, currently ranging around the 1.27 level.
Potential Trade: Short on BD of S1,  in the mean time look for trades off S&R.
Watch out for: Lots of data throughout day and tentative 10 GER bonds.
Plan:  Try to get long USD on Range BO. In mean time scan for scalps within range. Placing careful EUR trades before SPA debt auction (keeping http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/ on) and lightening up at…
1. 1330 for US Thursday Jobs
Reaction:
2. 1500  for US Leading and Philly manu
Reaction:

Personal Notes:
Not liking the morning action, will sit on the side line until something more decisive happens.  Best of luck to the rest of you.

Wednesday 16 May 2012

Good morning all hope you're enjoying the volatility.  For me I either love it or hate it. In fact I've had to reduce my workload to be able to trade effectively in this climate. So for the time being my blog will be solely focusing on the EURUSD and some position trade stocks as this is all I'm trading.  Have a great day.

WEDNESDAY DATA (Trade reaction):
  • 0050 JAP Machine Orders down to -2.8% and -1.1% WTE
  • 0050 JAP Tertiary Index down to -0.6% WTE
  • 0130 AUS CCI up to 0.8%
  • 0900 ITA Trade Bal BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
  • 0930 UK Claimant Count Change BTE = long GBP, WTE short GBP
  • 0930 UK Claimant Count Rate BTE = long GBP, WTE short GBP
  • 0930 UK av wage inc bonus BTE = long GBP, WTE short GBP
  • 1000 EU CPI  BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
  • 1000 EU trade bal BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
  • 1000 SW expectations BTE = long CHF, WTE short CHF
  • 1030 UK BoE Q Inflation report BTE = long GBP, WTE short GBP
  • Tentative GER 10yr Bond BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
  •  1415 US Ind Prod BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
  • 1500 EU Draghi speech BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
  •  1900 US FOMC BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
NEWS:
  • GRE govt seek agreement for election as soon as June 10.
  • GER seeks to force GRE out of EU.
  • Asia falls on GRE talks
  • JAP ec seen peaking with pressure on BoJ to stimulate.
  • CHI bought more US treasuries 
  • EADS has Q1 profit
Initial Thought: With GRE fears remaining prominent continue to buy USD as safe haven.

Correlation: EURUSD High with GBPUSD and XAUUSD high neg with USDCHF.

NO TRADING UNTIL YOU’VE PLANNED YOUR DAY!

As of 0800 GMT EURUSD…
ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Long USD
EURUSD chart action: In down trend, currently ranging.
Potential Trade: Short on BD of S1,  in the mean time look for trades off S&R.
Watch out for: Lots of data throughout day and tentative 10 GER bonds.
Plan:  Trade with intraday direction. Placing careful EUR trades before GER debt auction around 1030 (keeping http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/ on) and lightening up at…
1. 0900 ITA Trade
Reaction:
2. 0930 UK Claimant Count Change, Rate  and wages.
Reaction:
3. 1000 EU inflation and trade balance.  And Swiss expectations
Reaction:
4. 1030 UK BoE Q Inflation report and GER 10yr Bond
Reaction:
5. 1415 US Ind Prod
Reaction:
6. 1500 EU Draghi speech
Reaction:
7. 1900 US FOMC
Reaction:

Personal Notes: There’s obviously a lot going on in the market at the moment which is creating huge moves on the EURUSD and doubtless other markets too. When the markets are moving but in such a volatile way it’s very important for me not to get greedy. As soon as I chase price I tend to lose, so I will be planning trades well in advance and only trading them if they triggered. My results are now improving from the past 2 weeks of being in the red. This has simply been due to my simplifying my routine, keeping risk constant then planning my day and trading my plan. Best of luck to the rest of you.

Tuesday 15 May 2012


TUESDAY DATA (Trade reaction):

  1. NA EU EcoFin Meeting NA
  2. 0230 AUS RBA Meeting Dovish
  3. 0600 JAP CCI  BTE = long JPY, WTE short JPY
  4. 0630 FRA GDP at 0% AE
  5. 0700 GER GDP up to 0.5% BTE
  6. 0745 FRA NFP up to 0.1% BTE
  7. 0930 UK Goods Trade Bal BTE = long GBP, WTE short GBP
  8. 1000 EU GDP  BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
  9. 1000 EU Ec sent  BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
  10. 1000 GER ZEW surveys  BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
  11. 1330 US CPI BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
  12. 1330 US CPI ex F&E BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
  13. 1330 US retail sales BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
  14. 1400 US Net LT tics  BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
  15. 1500 US Biz Inventories BTE = long USD, WTE short USD

NEWS:

  • Asia falls on ITA bank down grades and GRE fears
  • GRE leftist set to force new election.
  • EU starts off with good results in GER and FRA sending EUR higher.
  • FB IPO range raised to $34-$38.
  • RBA saw 0.5% cut needed and growth outside the mining sector slowing

Initial Thought: Despite good news unless the rest of data for the EU comes out bullish I still remain bearish and will want to buy USD as safe haven.

Correlation: high with GBPUSD, EURJPY high negative w USDCHF

As of 0800 GMT EURUSD…
ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Long USD
D1 chart:  Trending Down
H1 chart: ID bias = Ranging
Potential Trade: Wait for H1 Range to BD and trade with Trend and look for scalps within range.
Watch out for: Lots of data throughout day
Plan:  Look to get long USD, and scalp within range lightening up around..

  1. 0930 for UK Goods Trade Bal 
  2. 1000 for EU and GER data 
  3. 1330 US inflation and retail sales
  4. 1400 US Net LT tics  
  5. 1500 US Biz Inventories 

Personal Notes: Reduced workload and just trading the EURUSD today. With all the uncertainty in the market I didn't want to spread myself too thin. Not putting too much pressure on myself to find lots of trades. Far more interested in finding one good trade. Good luck to everyone else.

Monday 14 May 2012

MONDAY DATA (Trade reaction):
  1. 0230 AUS Home Loans up to 0.3% BTE
  2. 0915 SW PPI MoM down to -0.1%, YoY down to -2.3% WTE
  3. 1000 EU Ind Prod BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
  4. 1000 ??? ITA 10yr Bond  BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
NEWS:
  • Asia closes mixed. EU futures dignal lower open on GRE fears.
  • GRE getting nearer to new elections with Tsipras refusing to join coalition.
  • GER Merkel’s party loses a state election.
  • Stocks fell on EU debt fears and JPMorgan losses.
  • Speculation over whether Fed will add more easing may hurt USD but will be good for stocks.
  • IND inflation rises to 7.23% faster than expected.
Initial Thought: with continued fears in the EU over GRE and debt buy USD as safe haven.

Correlation: EURUSD high negative with USDCHF

ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Long USD
Watch out for: Morning data, especially ITA bonds tentatively around 1000.
Plan:  Trade with intraday direction. Placing careful EUR trades before ITA debt auction around 1000 (keeping http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/ on) and lightening up at…
  1. 0815 for Swiss PPI
  2. 1000 for EU Ind Prod and ITA bonds (keep  http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/ on)
Potential Trades: NA

Personal Notes:
I can’t see any obvious trades yet. I’m just going to the spend the morning watching price and getting a feel for the market and look to follow my trade plan.

Sunday 13 May 2012


Weekly Trades Summary: -12 +11 -30 +13 = -18 pips
Faults...
  1. Poor Preparation = didn’t plan for price (ISL and IPT) and got scared. 
  2. didn’t let profits run! 
  3. Chased price so rushed prep
Trade Number: AL137
Time Frame: M15 Trade Start Date:  080512AM Trade End Date: 080512AM
Trade Type: short Pair: EURUSD  Price In: 1.30178 Price Out: 1.30238 Pips: = -12

FA Reason: Technical scalp

Trade Details: Short on PB to CPP on Bear EP
Short = Bear EP
ISL = non
IPT = 3-5 pips (MS1)

Exit: Panic

Trade Image1 : Entry OK Exit POOR












Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Poor Preparation = didn’t plan for price (ISL and IPT) and got scared so didn't old for profit.

Trade Number: AL138
Time Frame: H1 Trade Start Date:  080512AM Trade End Date: 080512AM
Trade Type: short Pair: GBPUSD  Price In: 1.61497 Price Out: 1.61457 Pips: = +11

FA Reason: Technical day trade

Trade Details: Short GD55REVT
Price closes below 55EMA
Price then closes below 55EMA test close = Short
ISL = prior high
IPT = S1

Exit: greed

Trade Image1 : Entry OK Exit POOR












Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Good trade
2. Fault didn’t let profits run!

Trade Number: AL139
Time Frame: M5 Trade Start Date:  100512AM Trade End Date: 100512AM
Trade Type: short Pair: GBPUSD Price In: 1.60928 Price Out: 1.61060 Pips: = -30

FA Reason: Technical day trade

Trade Details: ????
Dark cloud cover
Short on confirmation (very large bar eats PT)
ISL prior high (enormous SL)

Exit: when price double bottoms then breakout to new high

Trade Image1 : Entry POOR Exit POOR












Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Fault: missed the inspired thought wanted to trade off the UK Prod data long into the CPP from the Bull EP off H1 support.
Fault: Chased price so rushed prep.
Fault: candle patterns are weak on M5 charts!

Trade Number: AL140
Time Frame: M15 Trade Start Date:  100512AM Trade End Date100512AM
Trade Type: short Pair: EURUSD Price In: 1.29365 Price Out: 1.29313 Pips: = +13

FA Reason: Technical day trade

Trade Details: Short on M15 BD of UWTL and ST range
M15 creates range.
Short = close below range lows
ISL prior high
IPT H1 Support

Exit: IPT

Trade Image1 : Entry GOOD Exit GOOD


Lessons learnt/ Summary:
Nice trade

Summary
Lack of confidence is cause from poor preparation.  There are only 4 trading categories you need to prepare. If you’re lacking confidence your not prepping them correctly...
  1. Yourself: Physiology (fresh air and blood to the brain), Psychology (Probabilities) 
  2. Risk Management: 1% per trade max, RRR 2:1
  3. Fundamentals: Create a long term bias of your own, Prepare for upcoming data/news. 
  4. Technicals: Market Direction, Entry price, Stopp loss, Profit target.
Daily Goal: Write a strategy for trading data and price, Use your guide to take emotion out of your trading. Go with your creativity, if worried simply lower the risk. Trade every setup you see. If exhausted don’t trade. TTW Make a profit everyday.

Friday 11 May 2012

Quick Friday morning update...  Check last nights post for more details...

CHI data came out slower than expected.  Global stocks will likely sell off and the USD will be bought as a safe haven.

GER CPI is picking up... This is good it shows some consumer demand is coming in which is bullish for the EUR. However this is highly unlikely to over power the very negative effect the Greek govt is having on the EUR and the EU, any rally is likely to be short lived.

Good luck guys.

Thursday 10 May 2012

Good evening everyone, here's my prep for tomorrow. I'm posting early because this past week has been a real struggle psychologically for me. I'm not losing huge pips or anything but I'm struggling to pull the trigger. This all started last Friday with an idiotic trade I placed around the NFP's. Making this poor decision knocked my confidence in my ability to make the right decision and I've ended up avoiding the trades I've known were right and then jumping into poor ones chasing price. I just need to draw a line under it, go through my trades, reset my goals and I'll see you all on Monday morning. NB due to this being prepared on Thursday night I obviously can't fill everything out. Have a great Friday...

FRIDAY DATA (Trade reaction):
  • 0230 CHI CPI BTE = short USD, WTE = long USD
  • 0230 CHI PPI BTE = short USD, WTE = long USD
  • 0630 CHI Ind Prod BTE = short USD, WTE = long USD
  • 0630 CHI Retail Sales BTE = short USD, WTE = long USD
  • 0700 GER CPI BTE = long EUR, WTE =short EUR
  • 0930 UK PPI BTE = long GBP, WTE =short GBP
  • ???? UK 10yr bond BTE = long GBP, WTE =short GBP
  • 1200 CAD  jobs BTE = long CAD, WTE =short CAD
  • 1330 US PPI  BTE = long USD, WTE =short USD
  • 1330 CAD jobs rate BTE = long CAD, WTE =short CAD
  • 1455 US CSI BTE = long USD, WTE =short USD


NEWS:
  • Keep your eyes and ears open for news on Greek political news!!

ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): ???
Watch out for: data throughout day and news on GRE.
Plan: CHI data will likely set AM direction unless there is significant news about GRE over night. Try and trade with the prevailing trend but lighten up around data results most significantly...
  1. 0930 UK PPI BTE = long GBP, WTE =short GBP
  2. ???? UK 10yr bond BTE = long GBP, WTE =short GBP (keep Bloomberg on for updates)
  3. 1200 CAD  jobs BTE = long CAD, WTE =short CAD
  4. 1330 US PPI  BTE = long USD, WTE =short USD
  5. 1330 CAD jobs rate BTE = long CAD, WTE =short CAD
  6. 1455 US CSI BTE = long USD, WTE =short USD
Potential Trades: ???

Personal Notes: Good luck to you all and remember to have fun!


Good morning, apologies for late post had an early morning appointment...

THURSDAY DATA (Trade reaction):
  • ???? CHI Trade Balance BTE up to 18.4B
  • 0230 AUS Jobs figures BTE Rate down to 4.9%, Change down to 15.5K BTE
  • 0745 FRA Ind Prod down to -0.9% WTE
  • 0900 EU ECB report BTE = long EUR, WTE =short EUR
  • 0930 UK Ind Prod BTE = long GBP, WTE =short GBP
  • 0930 UK Manu Prod BTE = long GBP, WTE =short GBP
  • 0930 UK Trade Balance BTE = long GBP, WTE =short GBP
  • 1200 UK BoE IR / assets BTE = long GBP, WTE =short GBP
  • 1330 US Thursday jobs figures BTE = long USD, WTE =short USD
  • 1330 US Trade Balance BTE = long USD, WTE =short USD
  • 1430 US Bernanke speech BTE = long USD, WTE =short USD
  • 1500 UK GDP estimate BTE = long GBP, WTE =short GBP
  • 1800 US 30yr bond BTE = long USD, WTE =short USD
  • 1900 US Monthly budget statement BTE = long USD, WTE =short USD

NEWS:
  • CHI data disappoints. Keeping market on edge.
  • AUS jobs improve again showing continued growth and demand in Australia  making rate cut less likely.
  • Asia closes down, EU opens up on shorts profit taking as Greece tries to form new coalition govt.

Initial Thought: With fear still the ruling emotion on the market keep buying USD.

Correlation: EURUSD high positive with EURJPY, High negative w USDCHF.

ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Long USD
Watch out for: Data throughout day.
Plan:  I will look to get long the USD where ever possible but with so much data out today the trend will likely be choppy and it may even be worth counter trend trading occasionally off pivot points and data results.  Ease up around...
  • 0930 for UK Prod
  • 1200 for UK IR
  • 1330 for US jobs
  • 1430 for Bernanke speech
  • 1500 UK GDP estimate BTE = long GBP, WTE =short GBP
And if your trading late…
  • 1800 US 30yr bond BTE = long USD, WTE =short USD
  • 1900 US Monthly budget statement BTE = long USD, WTE =short USD

Potential Trades: scalps in-between data. Trade results if feeling sharp.

Personal Notes:
Stay frosty there will likely be sell offs before data results, it’s important I don’t get sucked into them.

Wednesday 9 May 2012


WEDNESDAY DATA (Trade reaction):
  • 0600 JAP leading economic index up to 96.6 WTE
  • 0700 GER Trade Bal flat at 13.7B BTE
  •  0745 FRA Trade Bal up to -5.7B BTE
  • ???? UK 30 yr bond BTE = long GBP, WTE =short GBP
  • 1800 US 10yr bond BTE = long USD, WTE =short USD
NEWS:
  • US aims to get budget back in surplus to give RBA maximum room on rates.
  • Asia closes down on Greek uncertainty.
  •  EU futures gain.
Initial Thought: Clearly uncertainty and scare mongering remains in the market I would imagine the purchase of USD to continue.

Correlation: EURUSD high positive w GBPUSD, EURJPY and XAUUSD. High negative w USDCHF.

Leading Pair: XAUUSD
ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Buy USD
Watch out for: UK and US bond sales
Plan: Trade w ID direction wherever possilbe, paying close attention to when bond sales are due… UK bonds are tentative so ensure Bloomberg is on. US aren’t due until 1800.

Potential Trades: NA for the time being.

Personal Notes:  Although the overnight trend is clear (Long USD) I am less certain of daily direction as the trend seems to be getting tired. Will keep both H1 and M15 charts open for further clues. Hope you all have fun.

Tuesday 8 May 2012


TUESDAY DATA (Trade reaction):
  • NA France closed
  • 0001 UK house price balance down to -19 WTE
  • 0230 AUS Trade Balance down to -1587M WTE
  • 1030 AUD annual budget BTE = long AUD, WTE =short AUD
  • 1100 GER Ind Prod BTE = long EUR, WTE =short EUR
  • 1315 CAD housing starts BTE = long CAD, WTE =short CAD
  • 1330 EU ECB Draghi speech Hawkish = long EUR, Dovish = short EUR
NEWS:
  • Asian share close up on hopes SPA will use public funds to help banks.
  • Euro near 3 month lows on FRA and GRE debt concerns
  • AUS trade gap widens worse than expected with imports outpacing exports.
  • UK house prices fall more than expected.
Initial Thought: with poor news over the long weekend on EU debt I would expect the EUR to keep falling in the coming days, however there might be some short covering today from yesterday's hard sell off.

Correlation: EURUSD High negative with USDCHF, High Positive with EURJPY.

ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Long the USD
Watch out for: GER ind prod and EU ECB speech
Plan:  Look to get long the USD on longer TF. Scalp between data, lighten up 20 mins before results and trade numbers. Pay special attention to ECB speech with so much sentiment in EU debt will likely help or hinder day.
  1. 1030 AUD annual budget BTE = long AUD, WTE =short AUD
  2. 1100 GER Ind Prod BTE = long EUR, WTE =short EUR
  3. 1315 CAD housing starts BTE = long CAD, WTE =short CAD
  4. 1330 EU ECB Draghi speech Hawkish = long EUR, Dovish = short EUR

Potential Trades: I might short GBPUSD on 2 closes below it's H1 55EMA

Personal Notes:
After long weekend I’m feeling a little drowsy and slow. Will probably watch price action for a little while before getting into trade today.  Would just like to flow with price and get a feeling for it. Good luck to the rest of you.

Sunday 6 May 2012

Weekly Trade Summary: -31pips
It's funny I hadn't really thought about it but it feels quite embarrassing publishing this result and showing a loss. I guess this is because I am making my loss public and therefore truly have to face up to it. I have of course always kept a trade journal and have always reviewed my work at the end of each day. But one can be kind to oneself and focus on the positives. This feels brutal, harsh but also like a step forward.

The week started badly with poor prep. I traded before some major economic data results. Although I was right about the direction I got stopped out before the major move, i managed to re-enter at the correct time and made back my losses. But due to the initial poor prep, this trade only got me back to break-even rather than into profit. I made this same mistake a little later in the week too. So I  managed to make 2 potentially profitable trades a zero sum game. Solution: only scalp before major data, lighten up 20 mins before result and trade the numbers once released.

The rest of my trading was quite good, lots of scalping. However I love taking profit and need to learn to extend my gains. Solution: don't exit until I've booked at least 3 pips profit.

But I truly ballsed up on Friday by trading when over tired (I've had quite a busy week in my personal life) making a stupid and avoidable mistake when trading the NFP results. I wanted to short the USD against the EUR when figures came out worse than expected. I was right however in my rush I shorted the EUR against the USD and turned a profitable week into a loser. Solution: Never trade when tired and I'm going to ask "what would a perfect trader do?" before I place each trade in the hope that this will make me more honest about the trade.

NB: bank holiday Monday in UK tomorrow means next post will be on Tuesday. Happy trading to the rest of you.

Trade Number: AL123
Time Frame: M15 Trade Start Date:  300412AM Trade End Date: 300412AM
Trade Type: Short Pair: EURUSD Price In: 1.32375 Price Out: 1.323720 Pips: -20 + 9 = -11pips

FA Reason: ID Trend losing momentum with rounded top = short back into demand.

Trade Details: Upward trendline break down.
P tests recent highs for 3rd time
Price then pulls back to UWTL and tests it with a lower shadow
Short = price closes below test low
ISL = prior bars high
IPT = CPP+ a bit.

Exit: CPP (discretionary)

Trade Image1 : Entry Poor Exit Poor












Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Poor trade after weekend , a little rusty.
2. Execution failure: you must wait for close before you enter!
NOT USING GUIDE!

Trade Image2 : Entry Good Exit OK












Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Nice entry and plan
2. Fault: didn’t let trade run while riding the 5EMA! Didn’t let profit run.
NOT USING GUIDE!

Trade Number: AL124
Time Frame: M15 Trade Start Date:  010512AM Trade End Date: 010512AM
Trade Type: Short Pair: GBPUSD Price In: 1.62053 Price Out: 1.61990(S1)Pips: = -18+24= +6

FA Reason: ID Trend losing momentum short into CPP

Trade Details: M15 BD of Range and UWTL (failure)
P tests Range lows and UWTL
Short = price closes below test low
ISL = prior bars high
IPT = CPP+ a bit.

Exit: Cls agsnt 8SMA

Trade Image1 : Entry Poor Exit OK












Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Preparation failure: right idea but trading before big UK result is idiotic
Lesson learnt: Prep day more thoroughly. What is your strategy for each part of the day?


Trade Details: M15 BD of Range and UWTL on BTE UK PMI (success)
P tests Range lows and UWTL
Mark lows, wait for result
Short = price closes below test low (Big Conf)
ISL = prior bars high
IPT = CPP+ a bit.

Exit: IPT

Trade Image1 : Entry Good Exit Good


Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Good planning and patience  = success



Trade Number: AL125
Time Frame: M15 Trade Start Date:  010512AM Trade End Date: 010512AM
Trade Type: Short Pair: GBPUSD Price In: 1.62105 Price Out: 1.62175 Pips: = 10= +6

FA Reason: TA Scalp off S1

Trade Details: Bull EP on S1 back into R
P tests S1
Bull EP
Buy = close of Bull EP
ISL = NA (Fault)
IPT = Prior support

Exit: PT

Trade Image1 : Entry Good Exit OK


Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. When you have an inspired thought go with it
2.  Started to really gain confidence after this trade from combination of having a go and scalping quick profits.
3. Taking profit increase confidence.
Fault: didn’t set ISL!


Trade Number: AL126
Time Frame: M15 Trade Start Date:  010512AM Trade End Date: 010512AM
Trade Type: Short Pair: EURUSD Price In: 1.32599 Price Out: 1.32502 Pips: = 9

FA Reason: TA Scalp off R1

Trade Details: Bear EP of tight range
P tests R1 forms tight range
Bear EP
Short = close below range lows
ISL = NA (Fault) should have been just above R1
IPT = Prior support

Exit: PT

Trade Image1 : Entry Good Exit OK


Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. When you have an inspired thought go with it
2.  Started to really gain confidence after this trade from combination of having a go and scalping quick profits.
3. Taking profit increase confidence.
Fault: didn’t set ISL!


Trade Number: AL127
Time Frame: H1 Trade Start Date:  010512PM Trade End Date: 010512PM
Trade Type: Short Pair: EURUSD Price In: 1.32488 Price Out: 1.32732 Pips: = -46

FA Reason: TA Scalp off R1 (fault should have been a Data trade!)

Trade Details: Bear EP at R1
P tests R1
Bear EP
Short = close of Bear EP
ISL = above R1
IPT = Prior support

Exit: ISL

Trade Image1 : Entry Ok Exit Poor


Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Sound idea but you can’t scalp on an H1 chart 3 hrs before big data, it’s idiotic because it takes so long for anything to happen on the H1 TF.
2. Main Fault lied in poor preparation, not setup. You should have had a strategy for trading the ISM manu figures,  and that strategy should have been a data one!
3. Fault 2: far too large a stop loss, should have been middle of confirmation bar.


Trade Number: AL128
Time Frame: M15 Trade Start Date:  010512PM Trade End Date: 010512PM
Trade Type: Short Pair: EURUSD Price In: 1.32695 Price Out: 1.32532 Pips: = 13

FA Reason: Data trade,  buy USD on BTE Manu data

Trade Details: data trade
US manu data came out bte
Price had created double top at R1
Short = on results (Bought USD)
ISL = confirmation hi
IPT = Mid point

Exit: IPT

Trade Image1 : Entry Good Exit OK


Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Sound idea/ strategy based off Data and traded off data.
The key is… identifying what kind of setup your trading (data /scalp)
And… having the discipline to plan it and the patience to wait for it to happen.


Trade Number: AL129
Time Frame: M15 Trade Start Date:  020512AM Trade End Date: 020512AM
Trade Type: Short Pair: GBPUSD Price In: 1.61765 Price Out: 1.61738 Pips: = 5

FA Reason: Scalp trade in to S2

Trade Details: M15 BD of ST range
Price ranges on MS1
Short = P BD St range
ISL =  conf high
IPT = S2

Exit: discretionary

Trade Image1 : Entry Good Exit OK


Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Sound simple scalp
2. Don’t get greedy when scalping. 5 pips is great could have extended gains!


Trade Number: AL130
Time Frame: M15 Trade Start Date:  030512AM Trade End Date: 030512AM
Trade Type: long Pair: EURUSD Price In: 1.31559 Price Out: 1.31589 Pips: = 3

FA Reason: Scalp,

Trade Details: Scalp double bottom w BullEP
Buy on Bull EP close
ISL = not set (but middle of conf if closed below)
IPT = 3-5 pips

Exit: IPT

Trade Image1 : Entry Good Exit OK


Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Nice little scalp.
2. Could have held a little longer
3. First trade of day, nice to start with a win.


Trade Number: AL131
Time Frame: M15 Trade Start Date:  030512AM Trade End Date: 030512AM
Trade Type: short Pair: EURUSD Price In: 1.31409 Price Out: 1.31389 Pips: = 4

FA Reason: Scalp

Trade Details: BD on choppy NRB range
Short on BD of NRB range
ISL = prior bars high (not set)
IPT = 3-5 pips (MS1)

Exit: IPT

Trade Image1 : Entry Good Exit OK


Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Nice little scalp.
2. Fault: Could have held a little longer.


Trade Number: AL132
Time Frame: M15 Trade Start Date:  030512AM Trade End Date: 030512AM
Trade Type: short Pair: EURUSD Price In: 1.31352 Price Out: 1.31342 Pips: = 2

FA Reason: Data scalp after WTE EU PPI

Trade Details: Short with momentum created by data
Short on poor results
ISL = prior bars high (not set)
IPT = 3-5 pips (MS1)

Exit: IPT

Trade Image1 : Entry Good Exit OK


Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Nice little scalp.
2. Fault: Could have held a little longer.
3. Felt a lot of conviction in my trading today.


Trade Number: AL133
Time Frame: M5 Trade Start Date:  030512AM Trade End Date: 030512AM
Trade Type: Long Pair: GBPUSD Price In: 1.61834 Price Out: 1.61844 Pips: = 2

FA Reason: Scalp

Trade Details: Scalp on BO of highs confirmation
Buy on conf x2 close above highs
ISL = prior bars low (not set)
IPT = 3-5 pips (MS1)

Exit: IPT

Trade Image1 : Entry Good Exit Good


Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Nice little scalp.
2.  Very poor spread on GBPUSD made profit target hard!


Trade Number: AL134
Time Frame: M15 Trade Start Date:  030512PM Trade End Date: 030512PM
Trade Type: short Pair: EURUSD Price In: 1.31634 Price Out: 1.31614 Pips: = 4

FA Reason: Scalp

Trade Details: Short Bear at CPP
Short on Bear EP confirmation
ISL = prior bars open (not set)
IPT = 3-5 pips (MS1)

Exit: IPT

Trade Image1 : Entry Good Exit OK


Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Nice little scalp.
2. Fault: Could have held a little longer.
3. Felt a lot of conviction in my trading today.


Trade Number: AL135
Time Frame: M5 Trade Start Date:  030512PM Trade End Date: 030512PM
Trade Type: short Pair: EURUSD Price In: 1.31559 Price Out: 1.31529 Pips: = 6

FA Reason: Scalp

Trade Details: Short Bear EP at double top
Short on Bear EP confirmation
ISL = prior bars open (not set)
IPT = 3-5 pips (MS1)

Exit: IPT

Trade Image1 : Entry Good Exit Good


Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Nice little scalp.
2.  Finished with good exit!


Trade Number: AL136
Time Frame: M15 Trade Start Date:  040512PM Trade End Date: 040512PM
Trade Type: short Pair: EURUSD Price In: 1.31175 Price Out: 1.31329 Pips: = -38

FA Reason: Data NFP trade

Trade Details: Short USD on WTE NFP (but US jobless rate down)
Short momentum (Meant to go long!)
ISL = non
IPT = 3-5 pips (MS1)

Exit: Pain

Trade Image1 : Entry POOR Exit POOR


Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Awful trade to finish week with.
2. Poor execution.
3. The good news is you can’t invalidate your strategy as you did not use it.
4. You cannot invalidate your thought process as you were right initially and would have made money had  shorted the USD as you had meant to.
Lesson learnt: When your tired even when your right you can f&*# everything up! DON’T TRADE WHEN TIRED!


Summary:
  • Identify if a trade is a scalp (technical) or a data (fundamental) trade. 
  • Prep day thoroughly. Have strategy for each part of the day. Planning = success.
  • Faults usually lie in your preparation or execution. Don’t invalidate your creativity and setups, they're your greatest assets when prep and execute properly!
  • Avoid trading when tired.  When you’re tired even when you’re right you can fail simply from human error!
  • Let profits run to pay for mistakes at least 3 pips on scalps!
  • Wins came from = being fresh, good prep, following daily strategy, following creativity, executing well. 
  • Losses came from = being over tired, poor preparation, not following daily strategy, poor execution. 
Daily Goal: Write a strategy for trading data and price, Use your guide to take emotion out of your trading. Go with your creativity, if worried simply lower the risk. Trade every setup you see. If exhausted don’t trade. Trade to Win,  make a profit everyday.

Friday 4 May 2012


FRIDAY DATA (Trade reaction):
  • 0000 JAP Greenery Day CLOSED
  • 0130 AUS RBA Monetary Policy cuts it’s economic growth forecast.
  • 0330 CHI PMI Services up to 54.1
  • 0815 SW Retail Sales BTE = long CHF, WTE short CHF
  • 0853 GER PMI Services BTE = long EUR, WTE = short EUR
  • 0858 EU PMI Services BTE = long EUR, WTE = short EUR
  • 1000 EU Retail Sales BTE = long EUR, WTE = short EUR
  • 1330 US Non Farm payrolls BTE = long USD, WTE = short USD 
  • 1330 US Unemployment rate BTE = long USD, WTE = short USD 
  • 1330 US Average Earnings BTE = long USD, WTE = short USD
  • 1500 CAD PMI BTE = long CAD, WTE = short CAD

NEWS:
  • Draghi leaves door open for more ECB action
  • RBA cuts economic growth forecast and inflation forecast.
  • Asian shares fell ahead of US data.

Initial Thought: Again another very busy day finishing with US NFP’s. Could go any where but would assume a sell off of the USD some point before the jobs report.

Correlation: EURUSD high negative correlation with USDCHF

ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): all major pairs are ranging as of 0755GMT = indecision.
Watch out for: a basket full of data results (listed above) from all over the western hemisphere, but all eyes on US NFP’s at 1330GMT.
Plan:  Like yesterday I’m going to try and trade technical’s between results and the numbers when they’re released.

Potential Trades: Data and scalps (hopefully next week a trend will develop and ill be able to get some swing trades going too).

Personal Notes: Again I am feeling very tired this morning after a bad nights sleep. Although I’ve got up early to do some prep for the US jobs report I am not feeling fresh enough to get scalping and to be honest the ID charts aren’t offering great scalping opportunities yet (thank god, because I would be inclined to take them and I trade horrendously when I‘m tired). Will probably go back to bed for  a couple of hours and get myself ready to trade around NFP’s. Best of luck to the rest of you, it should be fun.

Thursday 3 May 2012


Sorry for late post. Here you go...


THURSDAY DATA:
  • AUS services  down to 39.6 negative!
  • NZ Unemployment: Rate up to 6.7%, change up to 0.4% bothe WTE
  • JAP constitution day CLOSED
  • 0928 UK PMI serv : BTE long GBP, WTE short GBP
  • 1000 EU PPI : (unlikely to move ECB Interest rate but monitor)
  • ????FRE 10 yr bond (tentative): BTE long EUR, WTE short EUR
  • ????SPA 10 yr bond (tentative): BTE long EUR, WTE short EUR
  • 1245 EU IR : (unlikely to change, but observer)
  • 1330 US ini jobs : BTE long USD, WTE short USD (sluggish ahead of NFP tmrw?)
  • 1330 EU Draghi speech  Hawkish = long EUR, Dovish = short EUR
  • 1500 US non manu (services): BTE long USD, WTE Short USD

NEWS:
  • HK and NZ close down, on poor figures
  • EU futures edge up ahead of bond sales and good earnings

Initial Thought:  Loads of big data ahead could send prices anywhere today.

Correlation: EURUSD/ high negative correlation w USDCHF. Also GBPUSD EURJPY and GOLD on H1 TF.

Leading Pair: GU?

ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Short USD
Watch out for: UK and EU data this morning,  ECB and US data at lunch, US data this afternoon.
Plan :  Scalp before and after data results. Lighten up 20mins before to trade the numbers.

Potential Trades: Data and scalps

Personal Notes: Will probably be a choppy day with so much data coming out. I will need to keep a close lookout for bond sales as the timing of these results is uncertain (might be a good idea to have Bloomberg TV on as a heads up). US Non farm payrolls are tmrw so I will not to hold anything over night. They might also effect the data results of today too. Good luck and have fun.

Wednesday 2 May 2012


WEDNESDAY DATA (Trade reaction):
  • CHI HSBC Manu PMI up to 49.3 BTE
  • SW Retail Sales 0830
  • GER PMI Mnau 0853
  • GER Unemployment rate & change 0855
  • EU PMI manu 0900
  • UK PMI construction 0930
  • EU Unemployment rate 1000
  • US ADP change 1315
  • US factory orders 1500

NEWS:
  • Stocks in US and Asia close up on BTE US and CHI PMI manu data.
  • Oil steady and rising
  • UBS profits drop 54% in debt change
  • Facebook IPO next week.

Initial Thought:   From a purely fundamental p.o.v. I would expect an upward start to the EU day due to the BTE CHI data but there is so much data due out during the morning movement will likely be sluggish. It’s hard to predict a direction after that because it will be reliant on data results.

Correlation: EURUSD high negative correlation to USDCHF

ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Short USD
Watch out for: Swiss, GER UK and EU data throughout morning  and US data in PM.
Plan: 

Plan:
Scalp before and after data results. Lighten up 20mins before to trade the numbers.
0900 = Data , GER and EU data BTE =  long EUR, WTE = short EUR.
0930 = Data, UK PMI construction. BTE = long GBP, WTE = short GBP
1000 = Data  EU Unemployment rate BTE =  long EUR, WTE = short EUR.
1315 = Data US ADP figures BTE - long USD, WTE, = short USD
1500 = data US factory orders BTE - long USD, WTE, = short USD


Potential Trades: NA

Personal Notes: I’m quite tired this morning and as we have a very busy morning ahead of us I’m unlikely to try and scalp as often as my plan says or I’ll end up a gibbering wreck. What I am trying to indicate to myself is the type of trade I shouldn't put on. It would be idiotic to place a H1/60M swing trade on the EURUSD between 0930 - 1000, if I’m going to insist on trading at that time, it has to be a scalp! Good luck.

Tuesday 1 May 2012

Wow, big data out last night...


TUESDAY DATA (Trade reaction): 
  • AUS MFG Index down to 43.9
  • GER Labour day = closed
  • CHI manu PMI up to 53.3 WTE (slightly)
  • AUS IR down to 3.75% WTE
  • AUS house prices down WTE
  • UK PMI Manu 0928
  • US ISM manu 1500
NEWS:
  • CHI PMI worse than expected but still rising and any thing above 50 is positive.
  • AUS IR down to 3.75% unexpectedly and house prices fall. AUS shares rise.
  • Asian shares tumble nearly 2% on debt concerns and higher yen.
  • Portugal reduces 2013 spending in budget
Initial Thought:  Big day ahead, shorting the AUD and buying Aussie stocks seems obvious after the rate cut. And with Asian stocks dropping buying the Yen seem a good bet too. However this is just my view from looking at the fundamentals only.

Correlation: EURUSD negatively correlated with USDCHF

ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Short the USD (with the exception of against the AUD).
Watch out for: UK PMI at 0928 and US ISM manu 1500
Plan:  Keep close eye on H1 charts as most pairs ranging, if price breaks out of range go with it, if range remains intact trade price back into support or resistance.

Potential Trades: there is no doubt in mind there will be good trades today, but they are not apparent yet. Patience and constant monitoring will be required today.

Personal Notes:
Looking forward to seeing how the day goes should be interesting and fun to watch developments. Will be looking to get one or two trades using the H1 or M15 charts for entry because as they are longer timeframes they offer more certainty. I’m also going to make sure I wait for the close of sessions to ensure I don’t get stop squeezed. Good luck.

Monday 30 April 2012

Good morning all, and welcome to a new week.

MONDAY DATA (Trade reaction): 

  • JAP manu PMI 0000
  • GER Retail Sales moM up to 0.8%. YoY up to 2.3%
  • EU CPI 1000
  • CAD GDP 1330
  • US Personal Income 1330

NEWS:

  • Asian shares close down. But EU open looks positive with expectations of Central bank easing in AUS, UK and US. Gold up.

Initial Thought:  With renewed fears in EU I would expect the USD to rise as a safe haven. However Monday morning is often quite a slow start with only Asia open after the weekend so will not hold firm to this view. As Europe opens I will keep a close eye on what other market participants are thinking and take my cue from the price action they create.

Correlation: EURUSD & USDCHF

Leading Pair: GBPUSD

ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Short USD
Watch out for: EU CPI at 1000, CAD GDP at 1330, US income 1330
Plan:  Trade with the trend

Potential Trades: NA.

Personal Notes: Despite there being a fairly clear trend of shorting the USD overnight, the trend does seem to be slowing and looks to be weakening. I am unlikely to place a trade until the trend seems clearer/stronger. This morning I will keep a close eye on the H1/60M chart for further clues of intra-day direction before committing to a trade.  I will also visit some forex forums, to try and get some further insight in to what other trader are doing, but ultimately I will trade my own plan.

PLEASE ADD COMMENT, ALL VIEWS WELCOME, HERE TO SUPPORT NOT JUDGE! Kind Regards RTC 


Sunday 29 April 2012

Good afternoon all.

Weekly Trade Summary: +62 pips

Trade Number: AL120
Time Frame: M15 Trade Start Date:  250412AM Trade End Date: 250412AM
Trade Type: long Pair: EURJPY Price In: 107.56 Price Out: 107.35 Pips: -14

FA Reason: Intraday bias long

Trade Details: Pullback trade
Buy = on close above downward trend-line (fault)
Stop loss = Prior low
Profit target =  Measured Move

Exit: Stopped out

Trade Image: Entry Poor Exit OK












Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Preparation failure: Price had failed to make a new high I therefore should have waited for a break out above range highs instead of trading the pullback because there was too much overhead supply.
Solution: If you had used your guide and checklist you would have avoided this trade because the checklist critrea was not meet.


Trade Number: AL121
Time Frame: H1 Trade Start Date:  270412AM Trade End Date: 270412AM
Trade Type: Long Pair: EURUSD Price In: 1.31672 Price Out: 1.32005 Pips: 58.

FA Reason: NA

Trade Details: Bullish Engulfing Pattern at S1
Buy on close of Bull EP
ISL = below real body lows
IPT = Central pivot point

Exit: Central Pivot point

Trade Image: Entry Good Exit Good














Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Lesson learnt, when you have an inspired thought have a go even, you don’t have to max the risk.
2.  Fault let profits run,  don't sell until theres a good reason too.


Trade Number: AL122
Time Frame: M15 Trade Start Date:  270412PM Trade End Date: 270412PM
Trade Type: Short Pair: USDCHF Price In: 0.90653 Price Out: 0.90473 Pips: 18 pips

FA Reason: Short USD on Poor US GDP results

Trade Details: Range and S1 Break down
Price tests and ranges onS1
Short Price closes below range lows and S1
ISL = above S1
IPT = 2:1

Exit: MS2

Trade Image: Entry Good Exit Fine












Lessons learnt/ Summary:
Intraday charts aren't always going to look as good as hourly and daily charts. You've got to be prepared to enter when you have a good idea, and have conviction in it becuase it is unlikely that you will be able to find much solace in chart action. Find solace in your good idea instead.


Summary: 
1. Preparation failure: Soultion = Keep Guide by side and use Checklist for entry.
2. When you have an inspired thought have a go, you don’t have to max the risk.
3. Fault: didn't let profits run.
4. Keep you expectations inline with market action.
5. The decision making process is the most stressful part of trading (for me anyway). I know I'm banging on about it but, use a checklist for trade entry and trade management. This will make your succesful trading repeatable and make it easier to identify exactly where a problem lies.  It will also persevere your self esteem. If you trade with a check-list and the trade fails, it is the check-list at fault, not you! You did everything you were meant to and can therefore be proud of your efforts. But of course you need to examine the check-list to find how it created a loss.

Daily Goal: Use your guide and Check-list to take emotion out of  trade entry and management. Trade your inspired thoughts, if worried simply lower the risk. Try to make a profit everyday.

Friday 27 April 2012


Good morning everyone, another big day ahead with overnight news and data due out.

FRIDAY DATA:
  • UK CCI flat at -31
  • JAP CPI YoY up to slightly to 0.5%
  • JAP ind Prod YoY up to 13.9% WTE, MoM up to 1% WTE
  • JAP retial sales YoY up to 10.3% BTE
  • JAP jobs flat at 4.5%
  • JAP IR flat at 0.1%, expands stimulus in the form of govt bond purchases.
  • GER CCI down to 5.6 WTE
  • SW KOF leading up to 0.4 BTE
  • UK House Prices???
  • US GDP 1330
  • US CSI 1500
NEWS:
  • SPA rating cut on deficit
  • AMZN up on earnings
  • JAP BOJ adds stimulus while CPI, Retail Sales improve BTE and Ind Prod improves but misses views. However on the whole Japan is improving but EU debt fears are holding its stocks down.
  • Asian shares drop on EU debt concern.
  • Copper rises on hopes of Fed QE3.
Initial Thought:  With Spain downgrade, would expect USD to rise. JPY likely to fall with renewed stimulus from BOJ. Action could be stunted ahead of US GDP figures.

Correlation:
EURUSD & USDCHF

ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Charts indecisive, will keep an eye on H1 charts for clues.
Watch out for: US GDP at 1330, expected to fall, a BTE result will drive USD up, a WTE result will likely stump the market, with options rapidly decreasing.
Plan:  Look for trades with the prevailing trend. Lighten up before US GDP figures.

Personal Notes: 
In all honesty the direction of the day is not shouting out to me so I'm probably going to stay on the H1/60M chart until I see some clearer action (nice big bar) then drill down from there.
On a longer term perspective I will be looking at 2 stocks I've had on my watch list for some time, CRUS and SWI which both broke out of flat bases on huge volume yesterday.
Good luck, and have fun.

PLEASE ADD COMMENT, ALL VIEWS WELCOME, HERE TO SUPPORT NOT JUDGE! Kind Regards RTC 

Thursday 26 April 2012

CRUS: $27.39 4.30 (18.62%) 619% - Cirrus Logic Inc - Investors.com

CRUS: $27.39 4.30 (18.62%) 619% - Cirrus Logic Inc - Investors.com

SWI: $45.38 7.56 (19.99%) 309% - Solarwinds Inc - Investors.com

SWI: $45.38 7.56 (19.99%) 309% - Solarwinds Inc - Investors.com
Hi Guys...

THURSDAY DATA: 
  • EU Draghi Speech 0830
  • EU consumer, Economic and Industrial Confidence 0900
  • GER CPI ???
  • UK mortgage app 0930
  • EU confidence 1000
  • US Thurs JOBS 1330
NEWS:
  • UK consumer confidence at  53, but economy now technically in recession. 
  • US and Asia closes up on Bernanke words of support and positive earnings.
  • Deutsche bank profits drop on debt crisis.
  • RBNZ keeps rates at 2.5%
Initial Thought:  Lots of EU data out this AM avoid EURUSD trades.

Correlation:
EURUSD: and  USDCHF

ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Short USD
Watch out for: EU data 0830-0900, and US Jobs 1330
Plan:  Avoid EUR trades until after 0900, lighten up before US jobs 1330.

Potential Trades:
As of 0800GMT the market is short the USD across the board. The EURUSD and USDCHF are in a rather choppy range on their hourly charts. This will limit their intraday moves for the moment, wait for a BO of range and enter with the prevailing trend. But GBPUSD and XAUUSD are trending better so it’s just a case of being patient and waiting for that pullback (PB) or breakout (BO) then going with the trend.

Personal Notes:
I identified 2 trades yesterday which I didn’t trade as I got overly worried about long tails/wicks/shadows going against my trade direction on prior candles. Although these trades wouldn’t have made me a fortune I could have easily made 10-20 pips on each of them. I was thinking too much. If I had stuck to my guide I it would have taken this problematic decision making out of the equation and turned it into a mechanical act of ticking off a check list and entering once all the checklist criteria were satisfied. This would have taken all the responsibility out of my hands and therefore all the negative feelings about myself. Had the trade failed it would have been the checklist that failed, rather than myself. Even if the checklist had failed I could still feel positively about my efforts as I would have executed the trade exactly as I was meant to. I’ve got to use my guide and stop rushing entries!

PLEASE ADD COMMENT, ALL VIEWS WELCOME, HERE TO SUPPORT NOT JUDGE! Kind Regards RTC

Wednesday 25 April 2012

Good morning all.  So big day ahead of us...

WEDNESDAY DATA:
  • AUS closed Anzac day
  • UK GDP 0930
  • US durable goods 1330
  • US FED IR 1730
  • US fed conference 1915
NEWS:
  • Asia closes up near 1 % on earnings on improved US housing and EU debt.
  • AAPL stocks jump on China demand
  • EU banks still need ECB support while PIIGS struggle w debt.
  • Eye on French election, if Francois Hollande’s wins. France is likely to change it’s position on austerity and more debt fears will likely sweep the market. 
  • Eye on Fed.
Initial Thought:  With UK GDP in AM, US durable Lunch time and Fed in PM, might be a choppy day.

Correlation: EURUSD good with EJ UC XU

ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Short USD (as of 0800 GMT)
Watch out for: EU Draghi speech 0800, UK GDP (QoQ to show whether UK in recession) 0930, US Durable Goods 1330 GMT, US Fed IR 1915 GMT.
Plan :  Avoid GBP until after 0930, lighten up before US open wait for Durables and Wall street open, get flat ahead on Fed 1600.

Potential trades: 1. EURUSD long breakout trade after Bollinger band squeeze (BBSQ). Buy on close above dotted yellow line for 10-20 pips. 2. USDCHF short  breakdown trade after Bollinger band squeeze (BBSQ).. Sell on close below dotted line.












PLEASE ADD COMMENT, ALL VIEWS WELCOME, WE'RE HERE TO SUPPORT NOT JUDGE! Kind Regards RTC



Tuesday 24 April 2012

Struggled with the Intraday direction today .Charts looked listless and seemed to want to flirt with their H1 55EMA rather than do anything productive. Anyone taking pips well done. Going to get flat ahead of US Fed Interest rates tomorrow.

PLEASE ADD COMMENT, ALL VIEWS WELCOME, WE'RE HERE TO SUPPORT NOT JUDGE! Kind Regards RTC