Friday 4 May 2012


FRIDAY DATA (Trade reaction):
  • 0000 JAP Greenery Day CLOSED
  • 0130 AUS RBA Monetary Policy cuts it’s economic growth forecast.
  • 0330 CHI PMI Services up to 54.1
  • 0815 SW Retail Sales BTE = long CHF, WTE short CHF
  • 0853 GER PMI Services BTE = long EUR, WTE = short EUR
  • 0858 EU PMI Services BTE = long EUR, WTE = short EUR
  • 1000 EU Retail Sales BTE = long EUR, WTE = short EUR
  • 1330 US Non Farm payrolls BTE = long USD, WTE = short USD 
  • 1330 US Unemployment rate BTE = long USD, WTE = short USD 
  • 1330 US Average Earnings BTE = long USD, WTE = short USD
  • 1500 CAD PMI BTE = long CAD, WTE = short CAD

NEWS:
  • Draghi leaves door open for more ECB action
  • RBA cuts economic growth forecast and inflation forecast.
  • Asian shares fell ahead of US data.

Initial Thought: Again another very busy day finishing with US NFP’s. Could go any where but would assume a sell off of the USD some point before the jobs report.

Correlation: EURUSD high negative correlation with USDCHF

ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): all major pairs are ranging as of 0755GMT = indecision.
Watch out for: a basket full of data results (listed above) from all over the western hemisphere, but all eyes on US NFP’s at 1330GMT.
Plan:  Like yesterday I’m going to try and trade technical’s between results and the numbers when they’re released.

Potential Trades: Data and scalps (hopefully next week a trend will develop and ill be able to get some swing trades going too).

Personal Notes: Again I am feeling very tired this morning after a bad nights sleep. Although I’ve got up early to do some prep for the US jobs report I am not feeling fresh enough to get scalping and to be honest the ID charts aren’t offering great scalping opportunities yet (thank god, because I would be inclined to take them and I trade horrendously when I‘m tired). Will probably go back to bed for  a couple of hours and get myself ready to trade around NFP’s. Best of luck to the rest of you, it should be fun.

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