Thursday 17 May 2012

Good morning...

THURSDAY DATA (Trade reaction):
  • SW and GER closed
  • 0050 JAP GDP up to 4.1% MBTE
  • Tentative SPA 10y bond ???
  • 0200 AUS inflation expectations fall slightly to 3.1%
  • 0530 JAP Ind Prod up to 1.3% MoM and 14.2% YoY BTE
  • 1330 US Thursday Jobs report BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
  • 1500 US Leading BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
  • 1500 US Philly Manu BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
NEWS:
  • ECB stop leading to some GRE banks prompting GRE exit from EU.
  • JAP Economy grows faster than expected on Quake reconstruction.
  • Asia closes up on Jap GDP
  • Fed signals more easing possible = stocks up
Initial Thought: although some good news the Draghi signalling the end of some loans to GRE will cause a lot of fear continue to buy the USD.

Correlation: EURUSD High with GBPUSD and XAUUSD high neg with USDCHF.

Leading Pair: NA

As of 0800 GMT EURUSD…
ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Long USD
EURUSD chart action: In down trend, currently ranging around the 1.27 level.
Potential Trade: Short on BD of S1,  in the mean time look for trades off S&R.
Watch out for: Lots of data throughout day and tentative 10 GER bonds.
Plan:  Try to get long USD on Range BO. In mean time scan for scalps within range. Placing careful EUR trades before SPA debt auction (keeping http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/ on) and lightening up at…
1. 1330 for US Thursday Jobs
Reaction:
2. 1500  for US Leading and Philly manu
Reaction:

Personal Notes:
Not liking the morning action, will sit on the side line until something more decisive happens.  Best of luck to the rest of you.

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