Wednesday 16 May 2012

Good morning all hope you're enjoying the volatility.  For me I either love it or hate it. In fact I've had to reduce my workload to be able to trade effectively in this climate. So for the time being my blog will be solely focusing on the EURUSD and some position trade stocks as this is all I'm trading.  Have a great day.

WEDNESDAY DATA (Trade reaction):
  • 0050 JAP Machine Orders down to -2.8% and -1.1% WTE
  • 0050 JAP Tertiary Index down to -0.6% WTE
  • 0130 AUS CCI up to 0.8%
  • 0900 ITA Trade Bal BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
  • 0930 UK Claimant Count Change BTE = long GBP, WTE short GBP
  • 0930 UK Claimant Count Rate BTE = long GBP, WTE short GBP
  • 0930 UK av wage inc bonus BTE = long GBP, WTE short GBP
  • 1000 EU CPI  BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
  • 1000 EU trade bal BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
  • 1000 SW expectations BTE = long CHF, WTE short CHF
  • 1030 UK BoE Q Inflation report BTE = long GBP, WTE short GBP
  • Tentative GER 10yr Bond BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
  •  1415 US Ind Prod BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
  • 1500 EU Draghi speech BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
  •  1900 US FOMC BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
NEWS:
  • GRE govt seek agreement for election as soon as June 10.
  • GER seeks to force GRE out of EU.
  • Asia falls on GRE talks
  • JAP ec seen peaking with pressure on BoJ to stimulate.
  • CHI bought more US treasuries 
  • EADS has Q1 profit
Initial Thought: With GRE fears remaining prominent continue to buy USD as safe haven.

Correlation: EURUSD High with GBPUSD and XAUUSD high neg with USDCHF.

NO TRADING UNTIL YOU’VE PLANNED YOUR DAY!

As of 0800 GMT EURUSD…
ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Long USD
EURUSD chart action: In down trend, currently ranging.
Potential Trade: Short on BD of S1,  in the mean time look for trades off S&R.
Watch out for: Lots of data throughout day and tentative 10 GER bonds.
Plan:  Trade with intraday direction. Placing careful EUR trades before GER debt auction around 1030 (keeping http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/ on) and lightening up at…
1. 0900 ITA Trade
Reaction:
2. 0930 UK Claimant Count Change, Rate  and wages.
Reaction:
3. 1000 EU inflation and trade balance.  And Swiss expectations
Reaction:
4. 1030 UK BoE Q Inflation report and GER 10yr Bond
Reaction:
5. 1415 US Ind Prod
Reaction:
6. 1500 EU Draghi speech
Reaction:
7. 1900 US FOMC
Reaction:

Personal Notes: There’s obviously a lot going on in the market at the moment which is creating huge moves on the EURUSD and doubtless other markets too. When the markets are moving but in such a volatile way it’s very important for me not to get greedy. As soon as I chase price I tend to lose, so I will be planning trades well in advance and only trading them if they triggered. My results are now improving from the past 2 weeks of being in the red. This has simply been due to my simplifying my routine, keeping risk constant then planning my day and trading my plan. Best of luck to the rest of you.

No comments:

Post a Comment