Tuesday 15 May 2012


TUESDAY DATA (Trade reaction):

  1. NA EU EcoFin Meeting NA
  2. 0230 AUS RBA Meeting Dovish
  3. 0600 JAP CCI  BTE = long JPY, WTE short JPY
  4. 0630 FRA GDP at 0% AE
  5. 0700 GER GDP up to 0.5% BTE
  6. 0745 FRA NFP up to 0.1% BTE
  7. 0930 UK Goods Trade Bal BTE = long GBP, WTE short GBP
  8. 1000 EU GDP  BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
  9. 1000 EU Ec sent  BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
  10. 1000 GER ZEW surveys  BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
  11. 1330 US CPI BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
  12. 1330 US CPI ex F&E BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
  13. 1330 US retail sales BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
  14. 1400 US Net LT tics  BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
  15. 1500 US Biz Inventories BTE = long USD, WTE short USD

NEWS:

  • Asia falls on ITA bank down grades and GRE fears
  • GRE leftist set to force new election.
  • EU starts off with good results in GER and FRA sending EUR higher.
  • FB IPO range raised to $34-$38.
  • RBA saw 0.5% cut needed and growth outside the mining sector slowing

Initial Thought: Despite good news unless the rest of data for the EU comes out bullish I still remain bearish and will want to buy USD as safe haven.

Correlation: high with GBPUSD, EURJPY high negative w USDCHF

As of 0800 GMT EURUSD…
ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Long USD
D1 chart:  Trending Down
H1 chart: ID bias = Ranging
Potential Trade: Wait for H1 Range to BD and trade with Trend and look for scalps within range.
Watch out for: Lots of data throughout day
Plan:  Look to get long USD, and scalp within range lightening up around..

  1. 0930 for UK Goods Trade Bal 
  2. 1000 for EU and GER data 
  3. 1330 US inflation and retail sales
  4. 1400 US Net LT tics  
  5. 1500 US Biz Inventories 

Personal Notes: Reduced workload and just trading the EURUSD today. With all the uncertainty in the market I didn't want to spread myself too thin. Not putting too much pressure on myself to find lots of trades. Far more interested in finding one good trade. Good luck to everyone else.

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