NEW BLOG!

Hi to anyone visiting... I no longer update this blog as it was intended to inspire chat (it didn't work). Here's a link to my trade journal blog if you're interested http://eurusdtradejournal.blogspot.co.uk/

This blog is no longer updated as its mission was to create chat/conversation, however I never managed to inspire this in others, so there seemed little point in continuing. I still actively trade and am a hopless optimist so am not deleting it. I encourage anyone who visits to drop me a line. Very best wishes RTC

I keep 3 other blogs that you can find by visiting my profile.

Good morning...

THURSDAY DATA (Trade reaction):

• SW and GER closed
• 0050 JAP GDP up to 4.1% MBTE
• Tentative SPA 10y bond ???
• 0200 AUS inflation expectations fall slightly to 3.1%
• 0530 JAP Ind Prod up to 1.3% MoM and 14.2% YoY BTE
• 1330 US Thursday Jobs report BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
• 1500 US Leading BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
• 1500 US Philly Manu BTE = long USD, WTE short USD

NEWS:

• ECB stop leading to some GRE banks prompting GRE exit from EU.
• JAP Economy grows faster than expected on Quake reconstruction.
• Asia closes up on Jap GDP
• Fed signals more easing possible = stocks up

Initial Thought: although some good news the Draghi signalling the end of some loans to GRE will cause a lot of fear continue to buy the USD.

Correlation: EURUSD High with GBPUSD and XAUUSD high neg with USDCHF.

Leading Pair: NA

As of 0800 GMT EURUSD…
ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Long USD
EURUSD chart action: In down trend, currently ranging around the 1.27 level.
Potential Trade: Short on BD of S1,  in the mean time look for trades off S&R.
Watch out for: Lots of data throughout day and tentative 10 GER bonds.
Plan:  Try to get long USD on Range BO. In mean time scan for scalps within range. Placing careful EUR trades before SPA debt auction (keeping http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/ on) and lightening up at…
1. 1330 for US Thursday Jobs
Reaction:
2. 1500  for US Leading and Philly manu
Reaction:

Personal Notes:
Not liking the morning action, will sit on the side line until something more decisive happens.  Best of luck to the rest of you.

Good morning all hope you're enjoying the volatility.  For me I either love it or hate it. In fact I've had to reduce my workload to be able to trade effectively in this climate. So for the time being my blog will be solely focusing on the EURUSD and some position trade stocks as this is all I'm trading.  Have a great day.

WEDNESDAY DATA (Trade reaction):

• 0050 JAP Machine Orders down to -2.8% and -1.1% WTE
• 0050 JAP Tertiary Index down to -0.6% WTE
• 0130 AUS CCI up to 0.8%
• 0900 ITA Trade Bal BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
• 0930 UK Claimant Count Change BTE = long GBP, WTE short GBP
• 0930 UK Claimant Count Rate BTE = long GBP, WTE short GBP
• 0930 UK av wage inc bonus BTE = long GBP, WTE short GBP
• 1000 EU CPI  BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
• 1000 EU trade bal BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
• 1000 SW expectations BTE = long CHF, WTE short CHF
• 1030 UK BoE Q Inflation report BTE = long GBP, WTE short GBP
• Tentative GER 10yr Bond BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
•  1415 US Ind Prod BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
• 1500 EU Draghi speech BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
•  1900 US FOMC BTE = long USD, WTE short USD

NEWS:

• GRE govt seek agreement for election as soon as June 10.
• GER seeks to force GRE out of EU.
• Asia falls on GRE talks
• JAP ec seen peaking with pressure on BoJ to stimulate.
• CHI bought more US treasuries 
• EADS has Q1 profit

Initial Thought: With GRE fears remaining prominent continue to buy USD as safe haven.

Correlation: EURUSD High with GBPUSD and XAUUSD high neg with USDCHF.

NO TRADING UNTIL YOU’VE PLANNED YOUR DAY!

As of 0800 GMT EURUSD…
ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Long USD
EURUSD chart action: In down trend, currently ranging.
Potential Trade: Short on BD of S1,  in the mean time look for trades off S&R.
Watch out for: Lots of data throughout day and tentative 10 GER bonds.
Plan:  Trade with intraday direction. Placing careful EUR trades before GER debt auction around 1030 (keeping http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/ on) and lightening up at…
1. 0900 ITA Trade
Reaction:
2. 0930 UK Claimant Count Change, Rate  and wages.
Reaction:
3. 1000 EU inflation and trade balance.  And Swiss expectations
Reaction:
4. 1030 UK BoE Q Inflation report and GER 10yr Bond
Reaction:
5. 1415 US Ind Prod
Reaction:
6. 1500 EU Draghi speech
Reaction:
7. 1900 US FOMC
Reaction:

Personal Notes: There’s obviously a lot going on in the market at the moment which is creating huge moves on the EURUSD and doubtless other markets too. When the markets are moving but in such a volatile way it’s very important for me not to get greedy. As soon as I chase price I tend to lose, so I will be planning trades well in advance and only trading them if they triggered. My results are now improving from the past 2 weeks of being in the red. This has simply been due to my simplifying my routine, keeping risk constant then planning my day and trading my plan. Best of luck to the rest of you.

TUESDAY DATA (Trade reaction):

1. NA EU EcoFin Meeting NA
2. 0230 AUS RBA Meeting Dovish
3. 0600 JAP CCI  BTE = long JPY, WTE short JPY
4. 0630 FRA GDP at 0% AE
5. 0700 GER GDP up to 0.5% BTE
6. 0745 FRA NFP up to 0.1% BTE
7. 0930 UK Goods Trade Bal BTE = long GBP, WTE short GBP
8. 1000 EU GDP  BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
9. 1000 EU Ec sent  BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
10. 1000 GER ZEW surveys  BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
11. 1330 US CPI BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
12. 1330 US CPI ex F&E BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
13. 1330 US retail sales BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
14. 1400 US Net LT tics  BTE = long USD, WTE short USD
15. 1500 US Biz Inventories BTE = long USD, WTE short USD

NEWS:

• Asia falls on ITA bank down grades and GRE fears
• GRE leftist set to force new election.
• EU starts off with good results in GER and FRA sending EUR higher.
• FB IPO range raised to $34-$38.
• RBA saw 0.5% cut needed and growth outside the mining sector slowing

Initial Thought: Despite good news unless the rest of data for the EU comes out bullish I still remain bearish and will want to buy USD as safe haven.

Correlation: high with GBPUSD, EURJPY high negative w USDCHF

As of 0800 GMT EURUSD…
ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Long USD
D1 chart:  Trending Down
H1 chart: ID bias = Ranging
Potential Trade: Wait for H1 Range to BD and trade with Trend and look for scalps within range.
Watch out for: Lots of data throughout day
Plan:  Look to get long USD, and scalp within range lightening up around..

1. 0930 for UK Goods Trade Bal 
2. 1000 for EU and GER data 
3. 1330 US inflation and retail sales
4. 1400 US Net LT tics  
5. 1500 US Biz Inventories 

Personal Notes: Reduced workload and just trading the EURUSD today. With all the uncertainty in the market I didn't want to spread myself too thin. Not putting too much pressure on myself to find lots of trades. Far more interested in finding one good trade. Good luck to everyone else.

MONDAY DATA (Trade reaction):

1. 0230 AUS Home Loans up to 0.3% BTE
2. 0915 SW PPI MoM down to -0.1%, YoY down to -2.3% WTE
3. 1000 EU Ind Prod BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR
4. 1000 ??? ITA 10yr Bond  BTE = long EUR, WTE short EUR

NEWS:

• Asia closes mixed. EU futures dignal lower open on GRE fears.
• GRE getting nearer to new elections with Tsipras refusing to join coalition.
• GER Merkel’s party loses a state election.
• Stocks fell on EU debt fears and JPMorgan losses.
• Speculation over whether Fed will add more easing may hurt USD but will be good for stocks.
• IND inflation rises to 7.23% faster than expected.

Initial Thought: with continued fears in the EU over GRE and debt buy USD as safe haven.

Correlation: EURUSD high negative with USDCHF

ID (Emotional Bias/reaction to news): Long USD
Watch out for: Morning data, especially ITA bonds tentatively around 1000.
Plan:  Trade with intraday direction. Placing careful EUR trades before ITA debt auction around 1000 (keeping http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/ on) and lightening up at…

1. 0815 for Swiss PPI
2. 1000 for EU Ind Prod and ITA bonds (keep  http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/ on)

Potential Trades: NA

Personal Notes:
I can’t see any obvious trades yet. I’m just going to the spend the morning watching price and getting a feel for the market and look to follow my trade plan.

Weekly Trades Summary: -12 +11 -30 +13 = -18 pips
Faults...

1. Poor Preparation = didn’t plan for price (ISL and IPT) and got scared. 
2. didn’t let profits run! 
3. Chased price so rushed prep

Trade Number: AL137
Time Frame: M15 Trade Start Date:  080512AM Trade End Date: 080512AM
Trade Type: short Pair: EURUSD  Price In: 1.30178 Price Out: 1.30238 Pips: = -12

FA Reason: Technical scalp

Trade Details: Short on PB to CPP on Bear EP
Short = Bear EP
ISL = non
IPT = 3-5 pips (MS1)

Exit: Panic

Trade Image1 : Entry OK Exit POOR













Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Poor Preparation = didn’t plan for price (ISL and IPT) and got scared so didn't old for profit.

Trade Number: AL138
Time Frame: H1 Trade Start Date:  080512AM Trade End Date: 080512AM
Trade Type: short Pair: GBPUSD  Price In: 1.61497 Price Out: 1.61457 Pips: = +11

FA Reason: Technical day trade

Trade Details: Short GD55REVT
Price closes below 55EMA
Price then closes below 55EMA test close = Short
ISL = prior high
IPT = S1

Exit: greed

Trade Image1 : Entry OK Exit POOR













Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Good trade
2. Fault didn’t let profits run!

Trade Number: AL139
Time Frame: M5 Trade Start Date:  100512AM Trade End Date: 100512AM
Trade Type: short Pair: GBPUSD Price In: 1.60928 Price Out: 1.61060 Pips: = -30

FA Reason: Technical day trade

Trade Details: ????
Dark cloud cover
Short on confirmation (very large bar eats PT)
ISL prior high (enormous SL)

Exit: when price double bottoms then breakout to new high

Trade Image1 : Entry POOR Exit POOR













Lessons learnt/ Summary:
1. Fault: missed the inspired thought wanted to trade off the UK Prod data long into the CPP from the Bull EP off H1 support.
Fault: Chased price so rushed prep.
Fault: candle patterns are weak on M5 charts!

Trade Number: AL140
Time Frame: M15 Trade Start Date:  100512AM Trade End Date100512AM
Trade Type: short Pair: EURUSD Price In: 1.29365 Price Out: 1.29313 Pips: = +13

FA Reason: Technical day trade

Trade Details: Short on M15 BD of UWTL and ST range
M15 creates range.
Short = close below range lows
ISL prior high
IPT H1 Support

Exit: IPT

Trade Image1 : Entry GOOD Exit GOOD



Lessons learnt/ Summary:
Nice trade

Summary
Lack of confidence is cause from poor preparation.  There are only 4 trading categories you need to prepare. If you’re lacking confidence your not prepping them correctly...

1. Yourself: Physiology (fresh air and blood to the brain), Psychology (Probabilities) 
2. Risk Management: 1% per trade max, RRR 2:1
3. Fundamentals: Create a long term bias of your own, Prepare for upcoming data/news. 
4. Technicals: Market Direction, Entry price, Stopp loss, Profit target.

Daily Goal: Write a strategy for trading data and price, Use your guide to take emotion out of your trading. Go with your creativity, if worried simply lower the risk. Trade every setup you see. If exhausted don’t trade. TTW Make a profit everyday.